WN 1838 · LAS → DSM

departs 10:59 AM PT · arrives 3:51 PM CT

Forecast issued Mon 4:00 AM ET · 10h before departure

Arrive at DSM more than 15 minutes late?

39% chance · ±0 pts +2 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.

How late will it get to DSM?

On time or early
60%
15–30 min late
26%
30 min–1 hour late
3%
1–2 hours late
8%
Over 2 hours late
1%
Cancelled
2%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ LAS is prone to delays

↑ Arrivals into DSM at that hour are often late

↑ LAS is busy at that time

↓ Early flights usually leave on time

↓ Mondays in October are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

LAS (origin) Gusts24 kt Ceiling10,000 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

DSM (destination) Gusts24 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

WN 1838 · LAS → DSM

Odds over time

How late will it get to DSM?