Schedule: the flights that flew on Monday, Oct 5, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 1853
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Monday, October 12 Tomorrow
WN 1853 · SAT → LAS
departs 11:25 AM CT · arrives 12:16 PM PT
Forecast issued Sun 10:00 AM ET · 26h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Mon 10/12
Thu 10/15 23%
Fri 10/16 21%
Odds over time
Arrive at LAS more than 15 minutes late?
28%
chance · ±3 pts
−2 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
28%
Leave 15+ late
30%
Arrive 1h+ late
3%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
6.5d
2d
Now
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at LAS more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 15% · changed −2 pts in 24h
−2 pts
28%
Yes 28%
No 72%
Leave SAT more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 18% · changed −4 pts in 24h
−4 pts
30%
Yes 30%
No 70%
Arrive at LAS more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 2% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
3%
Yes 3%
No 97%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to LAS?
On time or early
72%
15–30 min late
14%
30 min–1 hour late
10%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
1%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
LAS is prone to delays
↑
Mostly benign weather forecast at LAS
↑
Arrivals into LAS at that hour are often late
↓
SAT usually runs smoothly
↓
Mondays in October are usually quieter than average
Weather at each end
SAT (origin)
Gusts 18 kt Ceiling 1,300 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.06 in
LAS (destination)
Gusts 23 kt Ceiling 3,500 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.