WN 1932 · PHX → LAS

departs 11:36 AM MT · arrives 12:51 PM PT

Forecast issued Sun 6:00 PM ET · 21h before departure

Arrive at LAS more than 15 minutes late?

50% chance · ±5 pts +0 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.

How late will it get to LAS?

On time or early
50%
15–30 min late
26%
30 min–1 hour late
18%
1–2 hours late
4%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ LAS is prone to delays

↑ Gusts to 26 kt forecast at PHX that day

↑ 11am departures from PHX are often late

↓ Mondays in October are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

PHX (origin) Gusts26 kt Ceiling7,000 ft Visibility10+ mi Precip0.07 in

LAS (destination) Gusts24 kt Ceiling4,500 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

WN 1932 · PHX → LAS

Odds over time

How late will it get to LAS?