WN 2026 · LAS → RNO

departs 9:24 AM PT · arrives 10:51 AM PT

Forecast issued Sun 9:00 PM ET · 15h before departure

Arrive at RNO more than 15 minutes late?

10% chance · ±1 pts −6 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.

How late will it get to RNO?

On time or early
90%
15–30 min late
5%
30 min–1 hour late
3%
1–2 hours late
1%
Over 2 hours late
<1%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ LAS is prone to delays

↑ LAS is busy at that time

↓ Early flights usually leave on time

↓ Arrivals into RNO at that hour are usually not late

Weather at each end

LAS (origin) Gusts24 kt Ceiling10,000 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

RNO (destination) Gusts18 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

WN 2026 · LAS → RNO

Odds over time

How late will it get to RNO?