WN 2041 · PHX → AUS

departs 6:59 AM MT · arrives 11:22 AM CT

Forecast issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · 18h before departure

Arrive at AUS more than 15 minutes late?

7% chance · ±1 pts −4 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.

How late will it get to AUS?

On time or early
93%
15–30 min late
2%
30 min–1 hour late
3%
1–2 hours late
1%
Over 2 hours late
<1%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Gusts to 26 kt forecast at PHX that day

↑ This flight has been late 25% of the time recently

↑ PHX is busy at that time

↓ Early flights usually leave on time

↓ 7am departures from PHX are usually not late

Weather at each end

PHX (origin) Gusts26 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precip0.07 in

AUS (destination) Gusts18 kt Ceiling1,500 ft Visibility10+ mi Precip0.01 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

WN 2041 · PHX → AUS

Odds over time

How late will it get to AUS?