WN 2127 · SAN → BWI

departs 6:45 AM PT · arrives 2:40 PM ET

Forecast issued Sun 5:00 PM ET · 17h before departure

Arrive at BWI more than 15 minutes late?

10% chance · ±1 pts +1 pt · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.

How late will it get to BWI?

On time or early
88%
15–30 min late
4%
30 min–1 hour late
3%
1–2 hours late
1%
Over 2 hours late
1%
Cancelled
1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Cloud base down to 233 ft, visibility down to 0.866667 mi, 0.3 in of rain, thunderstorms forecast at BWI that day

↑ Mostly benign weather forecast at SAN

↑ Other factors

↓ Early flights usually leave on time

↓ 6am departures from SAN are usually not late

Weather at each end

SAN (origin) Gusts19 kt Ceiling2,700 ft Visibility10+ mi Precip0.16 in

BWI (destination) Gusts19 kt Ceiling233 ft Visibility0.866667 mi Precip0.35 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

WN 2127 · SAN → BWI

Odds over time

How late will it get to BWI?