WN 2159 · IND → BWI

departs 5:37 AM ET · arrives 7:26 AM ET

Forecast issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · 6h before departure

Arrive at BWI more than 15 minutes late?

4% chance · ±0 pts −3 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE High. The odds now come mostly from live FAA and airport data.

How late will it get to BWI?

On time or early
95%
15–30 min late
<1%
30 min–1 hour late
2%
1–2 hours late
<1%
Over 2 hours late
<1%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Cloud base down to 300 ft, visibility down to 2.64286 mi forecast at BWI that day

↓ Early flights usually leave on time

↓ 5am departures from IND are usually not late

Weather at each end

IND (origin) Gusts19 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility6 mi Precipnone

BWI (destination) Gusts20 kt Ceiling300 ft Visibility3 mi Precip0.22 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

WN 2159 · IND → BWI

Odds over time

How late will it get to BWI?