Schedule: the flights that flew on Monday, Oct 5, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 2171
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Monday, October 12 Tomorrow
WN 2171 · LAS → COS
departs 12:50 PM PT · arrives 3:43 PM MT
Forecast issued Sun 10:00 AM ET · 30h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Mon 10/12
Thu 10/15 38%
Fri 10/16 38%
Odds over time
Arrive at COS more than 15 minutes late?
40%
chance · ±9 pts
−6 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
40%
Leave 15+ late
50%
Arrive 1h+ late
9%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
6.7d
2d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at COS more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 23% · changed −6 pts in 24h
−6 pts
40%
Yes 40%
No 60%
Leave LAS more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 35% · changed −5 pts in 24h
−5 pts
50%
Yes 50%
No 50%
Arrive at COS more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 6% · changed −2 pts in 24h
−2 pts
9%
Yes 9%
No 91%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to COS?
On time or early
60%
15–30 min late
19%
30 min–1 hour late
11%
1–2 hours late
7%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
12pm departures from LAS are often late
↑
LAS is prone to delays
↑
Mostly benign weather forecast at LAS
↓
Mondays in October are usually quieter than average
Weather at each end
LAS (origin)
Gusts 23 kt Ceiling 3,500 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
COS (destination)
Gusts 27 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.