Schedule: the flights that flew on Monday, Oct 5, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 2241
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Monday, October 12 Tomorrow
WN 2241 · LAS → BNA
departs 12:42 PM PT · arrives 6:16 PM CT
Forecast issued Sun 11:00 AM ET · 29h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Mon 10/12
Tue 10/13 15%
Wed 10/14 19%
Thu 10/15 36%
Fri 10/16 35%
Odds over time
Arrive at BNA more than 15 minutes late?
38%
chance · ±5 pts
−3 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
38%
Leave 15+ late
48%
Arrive 1h+ late
10%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
6.7d
2d
Now
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at BNA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 25% · changed −3 pts in 24h
−3 pts
38%
Yes 38%
No 62%
Leave LAS more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 34% · changed −6 pts in 24h
−6 pts
48%
Yes 48%
No 52%
Arrive at BNA more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 5% · changed −3 pts in 24h
−3 pts
10%
Yes 10%
No 90%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to BNA?
On time or early
61%
15–30 min late
17%
30 min–1 hour late
11%
1–2 hours late
8%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
LAS is prone to delays
↑
12pm departures from LAS are often late
↑
Arrivals into BNA at that hour are often late
↓
Mondays in October are usually quieter than average
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at BNA
Weather at each end
LAS (origin)
Gusts 23 kt Ceiling 3,500 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
BNA (destination)
Gusts 10 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.