Schedule: the flights that flew on Monday, Oct 5, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 2287
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Monday, October 12 Tomorrow
WN 2287 · BWI → ROC
departs 10:35 PM ET · arrives 11:56 PM ET
Forecast issued Sun 6:00 PM ET · 29h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Mon 10/12
Thu 10/15 27%
Fri 10/16 27%
Odds over time
Arrive at ROC more than 15 minutes late?
33%
chance · ±4 pts
+7 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
33%
Leave 15+ late
50%
Arrive 1h+ late
9%
Cancelled
1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
6.9d
2d
Now
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at ROC more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 20% · changed +7 pts in 24h
+7 pts
33%
Yes 33%
No 67%
Leave BWI more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 38% · changed +7 pts in 24h
+7 pts
50%
Yes 50%
No 50%
Arrive at ROC more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 5% · changed +3 pts in 24h
+3 pts
9%
Yes 9%
No 91%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
1%
Yes 1%
No 99%
How late will it get to ROC?
On time or early
66%
15–30 min late
8%
30 min–1 hour late
16%
1–2 hours late
5%
Over 2 hours late
4%
Cancelled
1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
10pm departures from BWI are often late
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↑
Cloud base down to 233 ft, visibility down to 0.866667 mi, 0.3 in of rain, thunderstorms forecast at BWI that day
↓
Mondays in October are usually quieter than average
↓
Other factors
Weather at each end
BWI (origin)
Gusts 19 kt Ceiling 233 ft Visibility 0.866667 mi Precip 0.35 in
ROC (destination)
Gusts 12 kt Ceiling 400 ft Visibility 0.8 mi Precip 0.13 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.