WN 2333 · LAS → MCO

departs 4:17 PM PT · arrives 11:40 PM ET

Forecast issued Mon 9:00 AM ET · 10h before departure

Arrive at MCO more than 15 minutes late?

47% chance · ±0 pts +17 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.

How late will it get to MCO?

On time or early
52%
15–30 min late
25%
30 min–1 hour late
12%
1–2 hours late
8%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 4pm departures from LAS are often late

↑ LAS is prone to delays

↑ Arrivals into MCO at that hour are often late

↓ Mondays in October are usually quieter than average

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at MCO

Weather at each end

LAS (origin) Gusts22 kt Ceiling10,000 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

MCO (destination) Gusts13 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

WN 2333 · LAS → MCO

Odds over time

How late will it get to MCO?