Schedule: the flights that flew on Monday, Oct 5, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 2387
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Monday, October 12 Tomorrow
WN 2387 · LAS → BZN
departs 12:30 PM PT · arrives 3:33 PM MT
Forecast issued Sun 1:00 PM ET · 26h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 39%
Mon 10/12
Thu 10/15 22%
Fri 10/16 25%
Odds over time
Arrive at BZN more than 15 minutes late?
30%
chance · ±8 pts
−3 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
30%
Leave 15+ late
35%
Arrive 1h+ late
7%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
6.6d
2d
Now
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at BZN more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 20% · changed −3 pts in 24h
−3 pts
30%
Yes 30%
No 70%
Leave LAS more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 27% · changed −3 pts in 24h
−3 pts
35%
Yes 35%
No 65%
Arrive at BZN more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 3% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
7%
Yes 7%
No 93%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to BZN?
On time or early
70%
15–30 min late
9%
30 min–1 hour late
13%
1–2 hours late
5%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
12pm departures from LAS are often late
↑
LAS is prone to delays
↑
Cloud base down to 500 ft, visibility down to 1 mi, 1.4 in of snow forecast at BZN that day
↓
Mondays in October are usually quieter than average
↓
BZN usually runs smoothly
Weather at each end
LAS (origin)
Gusts 23 kt Ceiling 4,500 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
BZN (destination)
Gusts 8 kt Ceiling 700 ft Visibility 1 mi Precip 0.30 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.