WN 2406 · LAS → SDF

departs 12:35 PM PT · arrives 7:10 PM ET

Forecast issued Mon 10:00 AM ET · 6h before departure

Arrive at SDF more than 15 minutes late?

36% chance · ±0 pts −8 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE High. The odds now come mostly from live FAA and airport data.

How late will it get to SDF?

On time or early
63%
15–30 min late
16%
30 min–1 hour late
9%
1–2 hours late
9%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 12pm departures from LAS are often late

↑ LAS is prone to delays

↑ This flight has been late 24% of the time recently

↓ Mondays in October are usually quieter than average

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at LAS

Weather at each end

LAS (origin) Gusts22 kt Ceiling10,000 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

SDF (destination) Gusts12 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility1.75 mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

WN 2406 · LAS → SDF

Odds over time

How late will it get to SDF?