WN 2506 · STL → BWI

departs 5:40 PM CT · arrives 8:57 PM ET

Forecast issued Mon 1:00 AM ET · 18h before departure

Arrive at BWI more than 15 minutes late?

16% chance · ±1 pts +1 pt · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.

How late will it get to BWI?

On time or early
83%
15–30 min late
6%
30 min–1 hour late
4%
1–2 hours late
5%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↑ WN's recent on-time record

↑ 5pm departures from STL are often late

↓ Mondays in October are usually quieter than average

↓ STL usually runs smoothly

Weather at each end

STL (origin) Gusts17 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

BWI (destination) Gusts20 kt Ceiling400 ft Visibility2.5 mi Precip0.23 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

WN 2506 · STL → BWI

Odds over time

How late will it get to BWI?