WN 2557 · BWI → TPA

took off 3:44 PM ET · expected to land 5:41 PM ET (scheduled 3:29 PM ET → 6:12 PM ET)

Forecast issued Mon 3:00 PM ET · 0h before departure

Arrive at TPA more than 15 minutes late?

0% chance · ±0 pts −6 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late will it get to TPA?

LIVE

On time or early
100%
15–30 min late
0%
30 min–1 hour late
0%
1–2 hours late
0%
Over 2 hours late
0%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%; while it’s in the air they come from the FAA’s arrival estimate.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↑ WN's recent on-time record

↑ Arrivals into TPA at that hour are often late

↓ Mondays in October are usually quieter than average

↓ Other factors

Weather at each end

BWI (origin) Gusts18 kt Ceiling400 ft Visibility0.75 mi Precip0.24 in

TPA (destination) Gusts19 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

WN 2557 · BWI → TPA

Odds over time

How late will it get to TPA?