Schedule: the flights that flew on Monday, Oct 5, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 2609
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Monday, October 12 Tomorrow
WN 2609 · RNO → LAS
departs 12:30 PM PT · arrives 1:54 PM PT
Forecast issued Sun 11:00 AM ET · 28h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Mon 10/12
Thu 10/15 21%
Fri 10/16 19%
Odds over time
Arrive at LAS more than 15 minutes late?
33%
chance · ±12 pts
−28 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
33%
Leave 15+ late
27%
Arrive 1h+ late
4%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
25%
50%
75%
100%
6.6d
2d
Now
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at LAS more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 13% · changed −28 pts in 24h
−28 pts
33%
Yes 33%
No 67%
Leave RNO more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 21% · changed −12 pts in 24h
−12 pts
27%
Yes 27%
No 73%
Arrive at LAS more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 3% · changed −9 pts in 24h
−9 pts
4%
Yes 4%
No 96%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to LAS?
On time or early
67%
15–30 min late
21%
30 min–1 hour late
8%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
1%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
LAS is prone to delays
↑
Arrivals into LAS at that hour are often late
↑
LAS is busy at that time
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at RNO
↓
Mondays in October are usually quieter than average
Weather at each end
RNO (origin)
Gusts 14 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
LAS (destination)
Gusts 23 kt Ceiling 3,500 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.