WN 2791 · MCO → ROC

departs 2:26 PM ET · arrives 5:05 PM ET

Forecast issued Sun 11:00 PM ET · 15h before departure

Arrive at ROC more than 15 minutes late?

26% chance · ±1 pts +0 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.

How late will it get to ROC?

On time or early
74%
15–30 min late
14%
30 min–1 hour late
6%
1–2 hours late
4%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 2pm departures from MCO are often late

↑ This flight has been late 30% of the time recently

↑ WN's recent on-time record

↓ Mondays in October are usually quieter than average

↓ ROC usually runs smoothly

Weather at each end

MCO (origin) Gusts14 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

ROC (destination) Gusts13 kt Ceiling300 ft Visibility5 mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

WN 2791 · MCO → ROC

Odds over time

How late will it get to ROC?