WN 2794 · SAN → SFO

departs 9:30 AM PT · arrives 11:07 AM PT

Forecast issued Mon 1:00 AM ET · 12h before departure

Arrive at SFO more than 15 minutes late?

45% chance · ±0 pts +17 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.

How late will it get to SFO?

On time or early
54%
15–30 min late
28%
30 min–1 hour late
<1%
1–2 hours late
13%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Arrivals into SFO at that hour are often late

↑ This flight has been late 43% of the time recently

↑ SFO is prone to delays

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at SFO

↓ Mondays in October are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

SAN (origin) Gusts16 kt Ceiling3,300 ft Visibility8.8 mi Precip0.09 in

SFO (destination) Gusts14 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

WN 2794 · SAN → SFO

Odds over time

How late will it get to SFO?