Schedule: the flights that flew on Monday, Oct 5, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 2850
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Monday, October 12 Tomorrow
WN 2850 · MDW → BWI
departs 6:25 PM CT · arrives 9:22 PM ET
Forecast issued Sun 6:00 PM ET · 25h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Mon 10/12
Tue 10/13 16%
Wed 10/14 22%
Thu 10/15 35%
Fri 10/16 30%
Odds over time
Arrive at BWI more than 15 minutes late?
26%
chance · ±3 pts
+1 pt · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
26%
Leave 15+ late
37%
Arrive 1h+ late
10%
Cancelled
1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
6.8d
2d
Now
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at BWI more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 20% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
26%
Yes 26%
No 74%
Leave MDW more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 27% · changed +4 pts in 24h
+4 pts
37%
Yes 37%
No 63%
Arrive at BWI more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 4% · changed +2 pts in 24h
+2 pts
10%
Yes 10%
No 90%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
1%
Yes 1%
No 99%
How late will it get to BWI?
On time or early
73%
15–30 min late
10%
30 min–1 hour late
6%
1–2 hours late
7%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
6pm departures from MDW are often late
↑
Arrivals into BWI at that hour are often late
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↓
Mondays in October are usually quieter than average
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at MDW
Weather at each end
MDW (origin)
Gusts 20 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
BWI (destination)
Gusts 19 kt Ceiling 233 ft Visibility 0.866667 mi Precip 0.35 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.