WN 3086 · LAS → SNA

departs 12:38 PM PT · arrives 1:51 PM PT

Forecast issued Sun 9:00 PM ET · 19h before departure

Arrive at SNA more than 15 minutes late?

44% chance · ±4 pts −14 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.

How late will it get to SNA?

On time or early
56%
15–30 min late
23%
30 min–1 hour late
14%
1–2 hours late
5%
Over 2 hours late
<1%
Cancelled
1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 12pm departures from LAS are often late

↑ 0.3 in of rain forecast at SNA that day

↑ LAS is prone to delays

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at LAS

↓ Mondays in October are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

LAS (origin) Gusts24 kt Ceiling10,000 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

SNA (destination) Gusts15 kt Ceiling3,500 ft Visibility10+ mi Precip0.27 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

WN 3086 · LAS → SNA

Odds over time

How late will it get to SNA?