WN 3630 · SAN → BWI

departs 1:06 PM PT · arrives 9:00 PM ET

Forecast issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · 24h before departure

Arrive at BWI more than 15 minutes late?

39% chance · ±2 pts +6 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to BWI?

On time or early
60%
15–30 min late
14%
30 min–1 hour late
15%
1–2 hours late
6%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 1pm departures from SAN are often late

↑ Mostly benign weather forecast at SAN

↑ Arrivals into BWI at that hour are often late

↓ Mondays in October are usually quieter than average

↓ BWI usually runs smoothly

Weather at each end

SAN (origin) Gusts19 kt Ceiling2,700 ft Visibility10+ mi Precip0.16 in

BWI (destination) Gusts19 kt Ceiling233 ft Visibility1.53333 mi Precip0.35 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

WN 3630 · SAN → BWI

Odds over time

How late will it get to BWI?