Schedule: the flights that flew on Monday, Oct 5, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 3639
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Monday, October 12 Tomorrow
WN 3639 · SLC → SAN
departs 4:25 PM MT · arrives 5:30 PM PT
Forecast issued Sun 3:00 PM ET · 27h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Mon 10/12
Thu 10/15 33%
Fri 10/16 32%
Odds over time
Arrive at SAN more than 15 minutes late?
50%
chance · ±3 pts
+1 pt · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
50%
Leave 15+ late
57%
Arrive 1h+ late
16%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
6.8d
2d
Now
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at SAN more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 24% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
50%
Yes 50%
No 50%
Leave SLC more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 38% · changed +2 pts in 24h
+2 pts
57%
Yes 57%
No 43%
Arrive at SAN more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 8% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
16%
Yes 16%
No 84%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to SAN?
On time or early
49%
15–30 min late
17%
30 min–1 hour late
17%
1–2 hours late
11%
Over 2 hours late
5%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
0.8 in of rain forecast at SLC that day
↑
Mostly benign weather forecast at SAN
↑
Arrivals into SAN at that hour are often late
↓
SLC usually runs smoothly
↓
Mondays in October are usually quieter than average
Weather at each end
SLC (origin)
Gusts 24 kt Ceiling 3,500 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.56 in
SAN (destination)
Gusts 19 kt Ceiling 2,700 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.16 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.