Schedule: the flights that flew on Monday, Oct 5, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 3801
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Monday, October 12 Tomorrow
WN 3801 · SJC → BWI
departs 9:40 PM PT · arrives 5:49 AM ET
Forecast issued Sun 10:00 AM ET · 39h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 28%
Mon 10/12
Thu 10/15 22%
Fri 10/16 21%
Odds over time
Arrive at BWI more than 15 minutes late?
16%
chance · ±2 pts
+0 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
16%
Leave 15+ late
20%
Arrive 1h+ late
5%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
7.0d
2d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at BWI more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 15% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
16%
Yes 16%
No 84%
Leave SJC more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 17% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
20%
Yes 20%
No 80%
Arrive at BWI more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 3% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
5%
Yes 5%
No 95%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to BWI?
On time or early
84%
15–30 min late
7%
30 min–1 hour late
3%
1–2 hours late
4%
Over 2 hours late
<1%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↑
9pm departures from SJC are often late
↑
WN's recent on-time record
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at SJC
↓
Mondays in October are usually quieter than average
Weather at each end
SJC (origin)
Gusts 22 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
BWI (destination)
Gusts 18 kt Ceiling 200 ft Visibility 1 mi Precip 0.32 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.