WN 3834 · SJC → PHX

took off 10:32 AM PT · expected to land 11:57 AM MT (scheduled 10:20 AM PT → 12:18 PM MT)

Forecast issued Mon 1:00 PM ET · 0h before departure

Arrive at PHX more than 15 minutes late?

<1% chance · ±0 pts +0 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late will it get to PHX?

LIVE

On time or early
100%
15–30 min late
<1%
30 min–1 hour late
0%
1–2 hours late
0%
Over 2 hours late
0%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%; while it’s in the air they come from the FAA’s arrival estimate.

What’s moving the odds

↑ PHX is prone to delays

↑ Mostly benign weather forecast at PHX

↑ Arrivals into PHX at that hour are often late

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at SJC

↓ Early flights usually leave on time

Weather at each end

SJC (origin) Gusts17 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility8 mi Precipnone

PHX (destination) Gusts24 kt Ceiling7,000 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

WN 3834 · SJC → PHX

Odds over time

How late will it get to PHX?