WN 3911 · SMF → DEN

took off 12:23 PM PT · expected to land 3:10 PM MT (scheduled 12:09 PM PT → 3:33 PM MT)

Forecast issued Mon 3:00 PM ET · 0h before departure

Arrive at DEN more than 15 minutes late?

<1% chance · ±0 pts +0 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late will it get to DEN?

LIVE

On time or early
100%
15–30 min late
<1%
30 min–1 hour late
0%
1–2 hours late
0%
Over 2 hours late
0%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%; while it’s in the air they come from the FAA’s arrival estimate.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Arrivals into DEN at that hour are often late

↑ DEN is busy at that time

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at SMF

↓ DEN usually runs smoothly

Weather at each end

SMF (origin) Gusts10 kt Ceiling11,000 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

DEN (destination) Gusts32 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

WN 3911 · SMF → DEN

Odds over time

How late will it get to DEN?