WN 3972 · SMF → SEA

departs 5:04 AM PT · arrives 7:02 AM PT

Forecast issued Mon 2:00 AM ET · 6h before departure

Arrive at SEA more than 15 minutes late?

5% chance · ±0 pts +0 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.

How late will it get to SEA?

On time or early
95%
15–30 min late
3%
30 min–1 hour late
1%
1–2 hours late
<1%
Over 2 hours late
<1%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ SEA is prone to delays

↑ SEA is busy at that time

↓ Early flights usually leave on time

↓ 5am departures from SMF are usually not late

Weather at each end

SMF (origin) Gusts9 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

SEA (destination) Gusts5 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

WN 3972 · SMF → SEA

Odds over time

How late will it get to SEA?