WN 4021 · SMF → SLC

took off 8:02 AM PT · landed 10:22 AM MT (scheduled 7:24 AM PT → 10:08 AM MT)

Forecast issued Mon 11:00 AM ET · 1h after departure

Arrive at SLC more than 15 minutes late?

Late chance · ±0 pts +1 pt · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late did it get to SLC?

RESOLVED

On time or early
–
15–30 min late
✓
30 min–1 hour late
–
1–2 hours late
–
Over 2 hours late
–

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 0.6 in of rain forecast at SLC that day

↑ SMF is prone to delays

↑ This flight has been late 18% of the time recently

↓ Early flights usually leave on time

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at SMF

Weather at each end

SMF (origin) Gusts8 kt Ceiling11,000 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

SLC (destination) Gusts28 kt Ceiling2,633 ft Visibility5 mi Precip0.47 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

WN 4021 · SMF → SLC

Odds over time

How late did it get to SLC?