WN 4157 · RNO → LAS

took off 9:41 AM PT · expected to land 10:32 AM PT (scheduled 9:27 AM PT → 10:51 AM PT)

Forecast issued Mon 12:00 PM ET · 0h before departure

Arrive at LAS more than 15 minutes late?

<1% chance · ±0 pts −3 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late will it get to LAS?

LIVE

On time or early
100%
15–30 min late
<1%
30 min–1 hour late
0%
1–2 hours late
0%
Over 2 hours late
0%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%; while it’s in the air they come from the FAA’s arrival estimate.

What’s moving the odds

↑ LAS is prone to delays

↑ LAS is busy at that time

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at LAS

↓ 9am departures from RNO are usually not late

Weather at each end

RNO (origin) Gusts20 kt Ceiling5,000 ft Visibility10+ mi Precip0.01 in

LAS (destination) Gusts22 kt Ceiling10,000 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

WN 4157 · RNO → LAS

Odds over time

How late will it get to LAS?