WN 4252 · DEN → MSY

took off 10:37 AM MT · expected to land 1:40 PM CT (scheduled 9:49 AM MT → 1:30 PM CT)

Forecast issued Mon 12:00 PM ET · 0h before departure

Arrive at MSY more than 15 minutes late?

47% chance · ±0 pts +1 pt · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late will it get to MSY?

LIVE

On time or early
53%
15–30 min late
41%
30 min–1 hour late
6%
1–2 hours late
0%
Over 2 hours late
0%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%; while it’s in the air they come from the FAA’s arrival estimate.

What’s moving the odds

↑ This flight has been late 29% of the time recently

↑ DEN is busy at that time

↑ 9am departures from DEN are often late

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at MSY

↓ Early flights usually leave on time

Weather at each end

DEN (origin) Gusts32 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

MSY (destination) Gusts8 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

WN 4252 · DEN → MSY

Odds over time

How late will it get to MSY?