WN 4319 · SFO → LAX

departs 11:30 AM PT · arrives 12:57 PM PT

Forecast issued Sun 10:00 PM ET · 16h before departure

Arrive at LAX more than 15 minutes late?

44% chance · ±6 pts −2 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.

How late will it get to LAX?

On time or early
56%
15–30 min late
18%
30 min–1 hour late
17%
1–2 hours late
7%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 11am departures from SFO are often late

↑ Mostly benign weather forecast at LAX

↑ This flight has been late 39% of the time recently

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at SFO

↓ Mondays in October are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

SFO (origin) Gusts14 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

LAX (destination) Gusts15 kt Ceiling3,500 ft Visibility10+ mi Precip0.24 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

WN 4319 · SFO → LAX

Odds over time

How late will it get to LAX?