WN 431 · LGA → HOU

took off 6:21 AM ET · landed 8:21 AM CT (scheduled 5:55 AM ET → 8:39 AM CT)

Forecast issued Mon 3:00 PM ET · 9h after departure

Arrive at HOU more than 15 minutes late?

Not late chance · ±0 pts −4 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late did it get to HOU?

RESOLVED

On time or early
✓
15–30 min late
–
30 min–1 hour late
–
1–2 hours late
–
Over 2 hours late
–

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Cloud base down to 900 ft forecast at LGA that day

↑ LGA is prone to delays

↑ HOU is prone to delays

↓ Early flights usually leave on time

↓ 5am departures from LGA are usually not late

Weather at each end

LGA (origin) Gusts20 kt Ceiling800 ft Visibility8 mi Precip0.08 in

HOU (destination) Gusts15 kt Ceiling3,500 ft Visibility10+ mi Precip0.03 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

WN 431 · LGA → HOU

Odds over time

How late did it get to HOU?