Schedule: the flights that flew on Monday, Oct 5, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 4467
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Monday, October 12 Tomorrow
WN 4467 · STL → LAS
departs 2:30 PM CT · arrives 3:58 PM PT
Forecast issued Sun 11:00 AM ET · 28h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 38%
Mon 10/12
Tue 10/13 14%
Wed 10/14 16%
Thu 10/15 27%
Fri 10/16 25%
Sat 10/17 13%
Odds over time
Arrive at LAS more than 15 minutes late?
30%
chance · ±9 pts
−15 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
30%
Leave 15+ late
31%
Arrive 1h+ late
5%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
6.6d
2d
Now
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at LAS more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 15% · changed −15 pts in 24h
−15 pts
30%
Yes 30%
No 70%
Leave STL more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 28% · changed −8 pts in 24h
−8 pts
31%
Yes 31%
No 69%
Arrive at LAS more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 3% · changed −5 pts in 24h
−5 pts
5%
Yes 5%
No 95%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to LAS?
On time or early
70%
15–30 min late
16%
30 min–1 hour late
9%
1–2 hours late
4%
Over 2 hours late
1%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
LAS is prone to delays
↑
Arrivals into LAS at that hour are often late
↑
2pm departures from STL are often late
↓
Mondays in October are usually quieter than average
↓
STL usually runs smoothly
Weather at each end
STL (origin)
Gusts 17 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
LAS (destination)
Gusts 23 kt Ceiling 3,500 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.