WN 4474 · BUR → LAS

departs 11:23 AM PT · arrives 12:35 PM PT

Forecast issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · 22h before departure

Arrive at LAS more than 15 minutes late?

36% chance · ±10 pts +3 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.

How late will it get to LAS?

On time or early
62%
15–30 min late
14%
30 min–1 hour late
14%
1–2 hours late
5%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
3%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ LAS is prone to delays

↑ 0.3 in of rain forecast at BUR that day

↑ Other factors

↓ 11am departures from BUR are usually not late

↓ Mondays in October are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

BUR (origin) Gusts19 kt Ceiling3,500 ft Visibility10+ mi Precip0.24 in

LAS (destination) Gusts24 kt Ceiling4,500 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

WN 4474 · BUR → LAS

Odds over time

How late will it get to LAS?