WN 4510 · BWI → SJU

departs 8:11 AM ET · arrives 12:28 PM AT

Forecast issued Sun 11:00 PM ET · 9h before departure

Arrive at SJU more than 15 minutes late?

30% chance · ±0 pts +10 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.

How late will it get to SJU?

On time or early
69%
15–30 min late
17%
30 min–1 hour late
8%
1–2 hours late
5%
Over 2 hours late
<1%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Cloud base down to 300 ft, visibility down to 2.64286 mi forecast at BWI that day

↑ Arrivals into SJU at that hour are often late

↑ This flight has been late 30% of the time recently

↓ Mondays in October are usually quieter than average

↓ Early flights usually leave on time

Weather at each end

BWI (origin) Gusts20 kt Ceiling300 ft Visibility2.64286 mi Precip0.23 in

SJU (destination) Gusts13 kt Ceiling2,700 ft Visibility10+ mi Precip0.13 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

WN 4510 · BWI → SJU

Odds over time

How late will it get to SJU?