WN 4521 · BWI → RIC

departs 4:37 PM ET · arrives 5:37 PM ET

Forecast issued Mon 1:00 AM ET · 16h before departure

Arrive at RIC more than 15 minutes late?

30% chance · ±0 pts +4 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.

How late will it get to RIC?

On time or early
70%
15–30 min late
13%
30 min–1 hour late
11%
1–2 hours late
3%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↑ 4pm departures from BWI are often late

↑ WN's recent on-time record

↓ Mondays in October are usually quieter than average

↓ RIC usually runs smoothly

Weather at each end

BWI (origin) Gusts20 kt Ceiling400 ft Visibility2.5 mi Precip0.23 in

RIC (destination) Gusts21 kt Ceiling1,300 ft Visibility6 mi Precip0.15 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

WN 4521 · BWI → RIC

Odds over time

How late will it get to RIC?