Schedule: the flights that flew on Monday, Oct 5, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 4571
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Monday, October 12 Tomorrow
WN 4571 · BWI → PWM
departs 10:25 PM ET · arrives 12:03 AM ET
Forecast issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · 26h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 63%
Mon 10/12
Tue 10/13 26%
Wed 10/14 22%
Thu 10/15 31%
Fri 10/16 33%
Odds over time
Arrive at PWM more than 15 minutes late?
30%
chance · ±2 pts
−5 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
30%
Leave 15+ late
36%
Arrive 1h+ late
6%
Cancelled
1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
6.9d
2d
Now
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at PWM more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 22% · changed −5 pts in 24h
−5 pts
30%
Yes 30%
No 70%
Leave BWI more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 32% · changed +2 pts in 24h
+2 pts
36%
Yes 36%
No 64%
Arrive at PWM more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 4% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
6%
Yes 6%
No 94%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
1%
Yes 1%
No 99%
How late will it get to PWM?
On time or early
70%
15–30 min late
14%
30 min–1 hour late
9%
1–2 hours late
4%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
10pm departures from BWI are often late
↑
WN's recent on-time record
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↓
Mondays in October are usually quieter than average
↓
Cloud base down to 300 ft, 0.3 in of rain forecast at BWI that day
Weather at each end
BWI (origin)
Gusts 19 kt Ceiling 300 ft Visibility 3 mi Precip 0.33 in
PWM (destination)
Gusts 10 kt Ceiling 300 ft Visibility 1 mi Precip 0.21 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.