WN 4579 · SFO → MDW

departs 5:33 AM PT · arrives 11:34 AM CT

Your aircraft is N8950L (B38M), coming in as WN 2199 from MDW: landed 2:16 AM PT.

Forecast issued Mon 4:00 AM ET · 4h before departure

Arrive at MDW more than 15 minutes late?

42% chance · ±0 pts +1 pt · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE High. The odds now come mostly from live FAA and airport data.

How late will it get to MDW?

On time or early
93%
15–30 min late
4%
30 min–1 hour late
1%
1–2 hours late
<1%
Over 2 hours late
<1%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Other factors

↑ This flight has been late 26% of the time recently

↑ MDW is prone to delays

↓ Early flights usually leave on time

↓ 5am departures from SFO are usually not late

Weather at each end

SFO (origin) Gusts15 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

MDW (destination) Gusts20 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

WN 4579 · SFO → MDW

Odds over time

How late will it get to MDW?