Schedule: the flights that flew on Monday, Oct 5, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 4607
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Monday, October 12 Tomorrow
WN 4607 · LAS → SAT
departs 11:41 AM PT · arrives 4:23 PM CT
Forecast issued Sun 1:00 PM ET · 26h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Mon 10/12
Thu 10/15 27%
Fri 10/16 24%
Sat 10/17 16%
Odds over time
Arrive at SAT more than 15 minutes late?
36%
chance · ±6 pts
+5 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
36%
Leave 15+ late
47%
Arrive 1h+ late
6%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
6.6d
2d
Now
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at SAT more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 22% · changed +5 pts in 24h
+5 pts
36%
Yes 36%
No 64%
Leave LAS more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 32% · changed +8 pts in 24h
+8 pts
47%
Yes 47%
No 53%
Arrive at SAT more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 3% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
6%
Yes 6%
No 94%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to SAT?
On time or early
64%
15–30 min late
12%
30 min–1 hour late
17%
1–2 hours late
4%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
LAS is prone to delays
↑
Cloud base down to 1,300 ft forecast at SAT that day
↑
11am departures from LAS are often late
↓
Mondays in October are usually quieter than average
Weather at each end
LAS (origin)
Gusts 23 kt Ceiling 4,500 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
SAT (destination)
Gusts 18 kt Ceiling 1,300 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.06 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.