Schedule: the flights that flew on Monday, Oct 5, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 4611
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Monday, October 12 Tomorrow
WN 4611 · BWI → SAV
departs 8:35 PM ET · arrives 10:35 PM ET
Forecast issued Sun 5:00 PM ET · 28h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 71%
Mon 10/12
Thu 10/15 16%
Fri 10/16 20%
Odds over time
Arrive at SAV more than 15 minutes late?
19%
chance · ±2 pts
+4 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
19%
Leave 15+ late
37%
Arrive 1h+ late
8%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
6.9d
2d
Now
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at SAV more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 12% · changed +4 pts in 24h
+4 pts
19%
Yes 19%
No 81%
Leave BWI more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 24% · changed +5 pts in 24h
+5 pts
37%
Yes 37%
No 63%
Arrive at SAV more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 4% · changed +3 pts in 24h
+3 pts
8%
Yes 8%
No 92%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to SAV?
On time or early
80%
15–30 min late
3%
30 min–1 hour late
9%
1–2 hours late
5%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↑
Cloud base down to 233 ft, visibility down to 0.866667 mi, 0.3 in of rain, thunderstorms forecast at BWI that day
↑
8pm departures from BWI are often late
↓
Mondays in October are usually quieter than average
↓
SAV usually runs smoothly
Weather at each end
BWI (origin)
Gusts 19 kt Ceiling 233 ft Visibility 0.866667 mi Precip 0.35 in
SAV (destination)
Gusts 14 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.