WN 4669 · BWI → MEM

departs 9:29 AM ET · arrives 10:50 AM CT

Your aircraft is N286WN (B737), coming in as WN 4770 from SRQ: in the air, landing about 8:48 AM ET, 34 min before departure (a tight turn, so this flight may leave late).

Forecast issued Mon 6:00 AM ET · 4h before departure

Arrive at MEM more than 15 minutes late?

29% chance · ±0 pts +10 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE High. The odds now come mostly from live FAA and airport data.

How late will it get to MEM?

On time or early
78%
15–30 min late
13%
30 min–1 hour late
3%
1–2 hours late
4%
Over 2 hours late
1%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Cloud base down to 400 ft, visibility down to 2 mi forecast at BWI that day

↑ This flight has been late 27% of the time recently

↓ Mondays in October are usually quieter than average

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at MEM

Weather at each end

BWI (origin) Gusts19 kt Ceiling400 ft Visibility0.75 mi Precip0.38 in

MEM (destination) Gusts17 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

WN 4669 · BWI → MEM

Odds over time

How late will it get to MEM?