WN 4689 · LAS → FAT

departs 3:24 PM PT · arrives 4:44 PM PT

Your aircraft is N8977G (B38M), coming in as WN 580 from BNA: in the air, landing about 2:27 PM PT, 51 min before departure.

Forecast issued Mon 3:00 PM ET · 3h before departure

Arrive at FAT more than 15 minutes late?

50% chance · ±0 pts +15 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE High. The odds now come mostly from live FAA and airport data.

How late will it get to FAT?

On time or early
49%
15–30 min late
30%
30 min–1 hour late
0%
1–2 hours late
18%
Over 2 hours late
1%
Cancelled
2%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 3pm departures from LAS are often late

↑ LAS is prone to delays

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at FAT

↓ Mondays in October are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

LAS (origin) Gusts22 kt Ceiling10,000 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

FAT (destination) Gusts14 kt Ceiling6,000 ft Visibility9 mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

WN 4689 · LAS → FAT

Odds over time

How late will it get to FAT?