Schedule: the flights that flew on Monday, Oct 5, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 4792
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Monday, October 12 Tomorrow
WN 4792 · LAS → RDU
departs 12:38 PM PT · arrives 7:59 PM ET
Forecast issued Sun 10:00 AM ET · 30h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Mon 10/12
Thu 10/15 38%
Fri 10/16 34%
Odds over time
Arrive at RDU more than 15 minutes late?
39%
chance · ±10 pts
−5 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
39%
Leave 15+ late
47%
Arrive 1h+ late
12%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
6.7d
2d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at RDU more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 26% · changed −5 pts in 24h
−5 pts
39%
Yes 39%
No 61%
Leave LAS more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 32% · changed −2 pts in 24h
−2 pts
47%
Yes 47%
No 53%
Arrive at RDU more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 6% · changed −4 pts in 24h
−4 pts
12%
Yes 12%
No 88%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to RDU?
On time or early
61%
15–30 min late
17%
30 min–1 hour late
10%
1–2 hours late
10%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
12pm departures from LAS are often late
↑
LAS is prone to delays
↑
This flight has been late 25% of the time recently
↓
Mondays in October are usually quieter than average
↓
RDU usually runs smoothly
Weather at each end
LAS (origin)
Gusts 23 kt Ceiling 3,500 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
RDU (destination)
Gusts 19 kt Ceiling 1,800 ft Visibility 9 mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.