Schedule: the flights that flew on Monday, Oct 5, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 4806
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Monday, October 12 Tomorrow
WN 4806 · PHX → LAS
departs 10:35 PM MT · arrives 11:50 PM PT
Forecast issued Sun 7:00 PM ET · 31h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Mon 10/12
Thu 10/15 42%
Fri 10/16 38%
Sat 10/17 8%
Odds over time
Arrive at LAS more than 15 minutes late?
42%
chance · ±9 pts
−3 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
42%
Leave 15+ late
58%
Arrive 1h+ late
13%
Cancelled
1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
7.1d
2d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at LAS more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 22% · changed −3 pts in 24h
−3 pts
42%
Yes 42%
No 58%
Leave PHX more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 33% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
58%
Yes 58%
No 42%
Arrive at LAS more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 6% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
13%
Yes 13%
No 87%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
1%
Yes 1%
No 99%
How late will it get to LAS?
On time or early
57%
15–30 min late
7%
30 min–1 hour late
22%
1–2 hours late
10%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Gusts to 26 kt forecast at PHX that day
↑
10pm departures from PHX are often late
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↓
Mondays in October are usually quieter than average
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at LAS
Weather at each end
PHX (origin)
Gusts 26 kt Ceiling 7,000 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.07 in
LAS (destination)
Gusts 24 kt Ceiling 4,500 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.