WN 4863 · RNO → PHX

departs 10:51 AM PT · arrives 12:46 PM MT

Forecast issued Mon 5:00 AM ET · 9h before departure

Arrive at PHX more than 15 minutes late?

32% chance · ±0 pts +10 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.

How late will it get to PHX?

On time or early
67%
15–30 min late
23%
30 min–1 hour late
4%
1–2 hours late
4%
Over 2 hours late
<1%
Cancelled
1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ PHX is prone to delays

↑ Gusts to 25 kt forecast at PHX that day

↑ Arrivals into PHX at that hour are often late

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at RNO

↓ 10am departures from RNO are usually not late

Weather at each end

RNO (origin) Gusts20 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

PHX (destination) Gusts25 kt Ceiling8,000 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

WN 4863 · RNO → PHX

Odds over time

How late will it get to PHX?