Schedule: the flights that flew on Monday, Oct 5, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 4969
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Monday, October 12 Tomorrow
WN 4969 · BWI → CLE
departs 3:50 PM ET · arrives 5:14 PM ET
Forecast issued Sun 10:00 AM ET · 30h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 16%
Mon 10/12
Thu 10/15 28%
Fri 10/16 28%
Odds over time
Arrive at CLE more than 15 minutes late?
18%
chance · ±0 pts
−1 pt · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
18%
Leave 15+ late
34%
Arrive 1h+ late
4%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
6.7d
2d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at CLE more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 16% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
18%
Yes 18%
No 82%
Leave BWI more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 23% · changed +3 pts in 24h
+3 pts
34%
Yes 34%
No 66%
Arrive at CLE more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 3% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
4%
Yes 4%
No 96%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to CLE?
On time or early
81%
15–30 min late
7%
30 min–1 hour late
7%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
WN's recent on-time record
↑
Cloud base down to 200 ft, visibility down to 0.733333 mi forecast at BWI that day
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↓
Mondays in October are usually quieter than average
↓
CLE usually runs smoothly
Weather at each end
BWI (origin)
Gusts 18 kt Ceiling 200 ft Visibility 1 mi Precip 0.32 in
CLE (destination)
Gusts 18 kt Ceiling 500 ft Visibility 7 mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.