Tracked live by the FAA. The scheduled times shown are from a typical Monday because the FAA's flight plan was first seen after takeoff.

SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 497 LANDED 11:32 PM ET, ~209 MIN EARLY

Monday, October 12 Today

WN 497 · PVD → MCO

took off 8:52 PM ET · landed 11:32 PM ET (scheduled 12:03 AM ET → 3:10 AM ET)

Forecast issued Mon 3:00 PM ET · 15h after departure

Arrive at MCO more than 15 minutes late?

Not late chance · ±0 pts −9 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late did it get to MCO?

RESOLVED

On time or early
✓
15–30 min late
–
30 min–1 hour late
–
1–2 hours late
–
Over 2 hours late
–

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Cloud base down to 300 ft, visibility down to 1 mi, 0.5 in of rain forecast at PVD that day

↑ Arrivals into MCO at that hour are often late

↑ PVD is prone to delays

↓ Early flights usually leave on time

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at MCO

Weather at each end

PVD (origin) Gusts22 kt Ceiling600 ft Visibility2.5 mi Precip0.24 in

MCO (destination) Gusts16 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

WN 497 · PVD → MCO

Odds over time

How late did it get to MCO?