WN 498 · BWI → AUS

took off 10:02 AM ET · expected to land 11:49 AM CT (scheduled 9:43 AM ET → 12:12 PM CT)

Forecast issued Mon 11:00 AM ET · 1h after departure

Arrive at AUS more than 15 minutes late?

<1% chance · ±0 pts −6 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late will it get to AUS?

LIVE

On time or early
100%
15–30 min late
<1%
30 min–1 hour late
0%
1–2 hours late
0%
Over 2 hours late
0%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%; while it’s in the air they come from the FAA’s arrival estimate.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Cloud base down to 400 ft, visibility down to 2 mi forecast at BWI that day

↑ AUS is prone to delays

↑ This flight has been late 18% of the time recently

↓ Mondays in October are usually quieter than average

↓ Early flights usually leave on time

Weather at each end

BWI (origin) Gusts18 kt Ceiling400 ft Visibility0.75 mi Precip0.24 in

AUS (destination) Gusts18 kt Ceiling1,300 ft Visibility9 mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

WN 498 · BWI → AUS

Odds over time

How late will it get to AUS?