WN 5096 · ABQ → LAS

took off 6:56 PM MT · expected to land 7:03 PM PT (scheduled 6:35 PM MT → 7:15 PM PT)

Forecast issued Mon 8:00 PM ET · 1h before departure

Arrive at LAS more than 15 minutes late?

2% chance · ±0 pts −4 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late will it get to LAS?

LIVE

On time or early
98%
15–30 min late
2%
30 min–1 hour late
<1%
1–2 hours late
0%
Over 2 hours late
0%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%; while it’s in the air they come from the FAA’s arrival estimate.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↑ LAS is prone to delays

↑ Arrivals into LAS at that hour are often late

↓ Mondays in October are usually quieter than average

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at LAS

Weather at each end

ABQ (origin) Gusts27 kt Ceiling6,000 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

LAS (destination) Gusts26 kt Ceiling10,000 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

WN 5096 · ABQ → LAS

Odds over time

How late will it get to LAS?