Schedule: the flights that flew on Monday, Oct 5, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 5129
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Monday, October 12 Tomorrow
WN 5129 · ABQ → LAS
departs 7:15 AM MT · arrives 7:54 AM PT
Forecast issued Sun 5:00 PM ET · 16h before departure
Watch this flight
Odds over time
Arrive at LAS more than 15 minutes late?
8%
chance · ±3 pts
−1 pt · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
8%
Leave 15+ late
8%
Arrive 1h+ late
2%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
6.4d
2d
1d
Now
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at LAS more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 6% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
8%
Yes 8%
No 92%
Leave ABQ more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 6% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
8%
Yes 8%
No 92%
Arrive at LAS more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 2% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
2%
Yes 2%
No 98%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to LAS?
On time or early
92%
15–30 min late
4%
30 min–1 hour late
3%
1–2 hours late
1%
Over 2 hours late
<1%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
LAS is prone to delays
↑
Other factors
↑
LAS is busy at that time
↓
Early flights usually leave on time
↓
Arrivals into LAS at that hour are usually not late
Weather at each end
ABQ (origin)
Gusts 32 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
LAS (destination)
Gusts 24 kt Ceiling 4,500 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.