Schedule: FAA flight plans.

SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 733 DELAYED: NOW PLANNED TO TAKE OFF 2:58 PM ET (21 MIN LATER THAN FIRST FILED)

Monday, October 12 Yesterday

WN 733 · BWI → RDU

departs 2:27 PM ET · arrives 3:46 PM ET

Forecast issued Mon 10:00 PM ET · 8h after departure

Arrive at RDU more than 15 minutes late?

58% chance · ±0 pts −3 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late will it get to RDU?

On time or early
80%
15–30 min late
9%
30 min–1 hour late
5%
1–2 hours late
3%
Over 2 hours late
1%
Cancelled
1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Cloud base down to 400 ft, visibility down to 0.75 mi forecast at BWI that day

↑ 2pm departures from BWI are often late

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↓ Mondays in October are usually quieter than average

↓ Other factors

Weather at each end

BWI (origin) Gusts18 kt Ceiling400 ft Visibility1.75 mi Precip0.29 in

RDU (destination) Gusts23 kt Ceiling4,300 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

WN 733 · BWI → RDU

Odds over time

How late will it get to RDU?